Mispriced
Odds vs. headlines
Prediction markets and the press don't always agree. These are the live stories where the money runs ahead of the reporting, or the coverage disputes what traders believe — the gap is the signal.
Every story below pairs the crowd's price on Polymarket or Kalshi with a cross-source read of the coverage. "Crowd ahead of press" means traders are more confident than the reporting; "coverage disputes this" means outlets are pushing back on the favored outcome. It updates as the odds and the headlines move.
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Francesca Hong poised to clinch Wisconsin Democratic nomination for governor
Francesca Hong has built a commanding position in Wisconsin's Democratic primary for governor, opening a 29-point lead in polling and dominating an amicable final debate while…
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Paxton and Talarico agree to debate in Texas Senate race
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic Congressman James Talarico have agreed to debate in the U.S. Senate race for the term beginning in 2027, a fresh development that…
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BLS July CPI report nears as US inflation stays stubbornly above Fed target
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release its July Consumer Price Index report on August 12, offering the latest read on whether annual U.S. inflation is continuing its…
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Nigel Farage faces challenge from Count Binface in Clacton by-election
Nigel Farage's resignation from the Clacton parliamentary seat has set off a by-election, with the self-proclaimed space alien Count Binface emerging as a contender. Traders put…
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CAVA faces Q2 earnings call after 34% stock slide
CAVA Group, the fast-casual Mediterranean chain, reports Q2 earnings on August 11 after a 34% stock slide, with CEO Brett Schulman defending the company's no-discount strategy…
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RFK Jr. faces Hatch Act probe as 2028 GOP nomination talk persists
A Senate Democrat has requested an investigation into whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. violated the Hatch Act, according to The Hill, adding a new legal dimension to questions about…
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Trump signals shift to economic pressure on Iran
Donald Trump has signaled a shift in his approach to Iran, focusing on economic pressure as the country hardens its stance on the Strait of Hormuz. This development comes as Trump…
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Bitcoin tests $60,000 floor as August curse talk intensifies
Bitcoin is midway through an August that has increasingly been framed as a make-or-break month for its $60,000 support level, with Yahoo! Finance Canada arguing the cryptocurrency…
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US measles cases climb past 2,400 as 2026 nears record high
U.S. measles cases have climbed past 2,400 in 2026, reaching a 35-year high that Healthline reports puts the country's measles elimination status at serious risk. CIDRAP…
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SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model release date looms on August 21
SpaceXAI is set to release its highly anticipated Grok 4.6 model on August 21, a development that has sparked both excitement and concern among experts and observers. While some…
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The End of Oak Street awaits first Rotten Tomatoes verdict
The End of Oak Street, an upcoming film whose critical reception remains largely unknown, is approaching its first major reviews milestone: whether its Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer…
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UK Plunges into Extreme Weather, Climate Whiplash Takes Hold
The UK is in the midst of a chaotic weather pattern, with extreme heat and cold events occurring in rapid succession, a phenomenon known as climate whiplash. This rapid shift in…
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Trump says decision on massive Iran attack is close
President Donald Trump said this week he is "close" to a decision on what Axios described as a "massive attack" on Iran, thrusting the prospect of direct U.S. military action…
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Bitcoin Plunges Amid Cold Storage Loss, Sentiment Shifts
Bitcoin's price continues to slide as a recent loss of $90 million from a cold storage facility weighs heavily on sentiment. The market is pricing in a continued decline, with the…
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Trump bashes Big Oil as prices slide toward midterm vote
Oil prices slid again this week as President Trump publicly attacked major oil producers, urging them to lower costs ahead of the November midterms — the latest in a string of…
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Anthropic's Claude faces a DeepSeek challenge as year-end AI crown looms
Anthropic is pushing its newest model, Claude, toward a year-end showdown for the title of top-ranked large language model on Dec. 31, 2026, and a new contender is complicating…
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NASA's Alien Search: U.S. Officials Weigh in on Extraterrestrial Life
NASA's latest findings have sparked renewed interest in the search for alien life, with U.S. officials weighing in on the possibility of extraterrestrial existence. The crowd is…