Mispriced
Odds vs. headlines
Prediction markets and the press don't always agree. These are the live stories where the money runs ahead of the reporting, or the coverage disputes what traders believe — the gap is the signal.
Every story below pairs the crowd's price on Polymarket or Kalshi with a cross-source read of the coverage. "Crowd ahead of press" means traders are more confident than the reporting; "coverage disputes this" means outlets are pushing back on the favored outcome. It updates as the odds and the headlines move.
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Giants face Braves
The San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves are set to play an MLB game, a matchup that matters now due to the teams' current standings. Traders put the Braves at 50%, even though…
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England faces Croatia
England and Croatia are set to clash in the FIFA World Cup, with the outcome having significant implications for both teams' standings. The match is a highly anticipated one,…
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US and Iran set June 19 signing ceremony in Geneva
Washington and Tehran will convene in Geneva on June 19 to sign a written diplomatic accord that both claim ends a decade of nuclear tensions. The ceremony is expected to draw…
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US and Iran Reach Deal
The United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, with a signing ceremony scheduled for June 19, in a move that could ease tensions between the two countries.…
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Netflix global top show
With the crowd putting 50% on 'Show E', the top Netflix show is uncertain. The ranking is based on total views. Multiple shows have been competing for the top spot, including 'ONE…
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Anthropic suspends Claude Fable 5 access in US
Anthropic released Claude Fable 5 on June 9, 2026, but suspended access three days later due to a US government directive. The move has sparked interest in whether the model will…
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England Faces Croatia in World Cup Clash
England and Croatia will meet in a crucial World Cup encounter, with both sides seeking to secure their tournament fate. While the match itself is the focus, traders have set a…
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Los Angeles Weather Forecast Sparks Summer Heat Speculation
Los Angeles will test its summer weather resilience on June 17 as the National Weather Service monitors temperature trends against the backdrop of an emerging El Niño, which could…
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World Cup 2026
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is approaching, with several national teams competing for the title. Traders put France at 19%, even though the reporting suggests a wide field of…
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NYC's June 17 Heat Forecast: Key Weather Watch
The National Weather Service's upcoming report on New York City's peak temperature for June 17 will settle a key climate question. While a heat advisory lingers in the Northeast,…
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US and Iran reach deal to end military hostilities
With 100% odds of a permanent peace deal by December 31, the US and Iran have reportedly reached an agreement to end military hostilities. According to multiple outlets, a deal is…
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Canada faces Qatar in crucial FIFA World Cup match
Canada takes on Qatar in a must-win match for the FIFA World Cup on Thursday, June 18. Canada needs a win to stay in contention, with Jonathan David being a key player. The team…
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Ibovespa Index Rises as Brazil Market Gains
The Ibovespa Index is rising as geopolitical risks ease, with Banco Bradesco gaining ahead of Brazil's rate call. The market is optimistic about Brazil's economic prospects, with…
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Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro face off in Brazil's 2026 presidential race
Brazil will hold its presidential election on Oct. 4, 2026, as former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva battles former congressman Flávio Bolsonaro, son of ex‑president Jair…
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Iran and US reach preliminary nuclear deal
Iran and the US have reached a preliminary agreement, with Iran saying the initial deal requires Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. The agreement aims to end the war and open the…
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Argentina Leads Group J
The 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage is underway, with Argentina seeking to dominate Group J. Traders put its chances at 86%, even though the reporting suggests a competitive group…
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Elon Musk's X Activity Sparks Speculation Ahead of Key Week
Elon Musk's prolific use of X (formerly Twitter) has long drawn scrutiny, with his posts often shaping public discourse and influencing markets. As a prediction market narrows in…
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Fed holds interest rates steady as inflation hits 3-year high
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its June meeting, paring down its statement to remove a bias towards cutting rates. This decision comes as inflation hits a…
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Gavin Newsom Front-Runner for 2028 Democratic Nomination
Gavin Newsom leads the Democratic 2028 field with 25% market odds, despite +0.8 pts inactivity over seven days and $1.2B high trading. While outlets like The Hill and Politico…
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Trump to Decide on Iran Deal
The United States and Iran are in negotiations over a potential deal that could allow Iran to continue enriching uranium, a key sticking point in the talks. Traders put the…
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2028 Presidential Election
With JD Vance at 17% to win, the 2028 US Presidential Election is gaining attention. The essential background is that the election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.…
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Trump set to deliver speech on Iran war
US President Donald Trump is set to deliver a speech on the Iran war, with expectations of discussing a potential peace deal. Trump has hinted at a possible agreement with Iran,…
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Oil Prices Poised to Surge Amid Iran Threat and US Tensions
On June 18, the settlement price for the August 2026 WTI crude contract will be set, a key gauge for energy markets as Iran’s threatened closure of the Strait of Hormuz tightens…
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Fed Keeps Rates Steady as Inflation Remains Elevated
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at its latest meeting, with Chair Kevin Warsh leading the decision. This move comes as inflation remains elevated, and the Fed's…
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Ghana Faces Panama in FIFA World Cup Match
The FIFA World Cup clash between Ghana and Panama will test announcers' adherence to sponsorship protocols. While announcers have used platforms for social statements—like ESPN’s…
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Midwest Braces as Tornado Counts Near Records
Tornado activity across the Midwest has intensified this June, with Illinois now just three storms shy of its all-time annual record. The National Weather Service confirmed 20…
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Ethiopia's general elections to determine next prime minister
Ethiopia's general elections are scheduled for June 1, 2026, with the incumbent Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed widely expected to retain his position. The elections come at a critical…
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Dodgers host Rays as World Series race tightens in midseason
The Los Angeles Dodgers will open a three-game series against the American League-leading Tampa Bay Rays on June 15, a pivotal matchup as both clubs aim to solidify their…
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US-Iran Nuclear Deal Negotiations Loom As Deadline Nears
U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled the Trump administration’s interim Iran nuclear deal is not final, warning of military action if Iran does not comply, while hailing its…
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US and Iran near deal to end war, reopen Hormuz Strait
U.S. officials and Iranian diplomats announced a tentative pact on Thursday that would formally end the six‑year conflict and reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. The…