Crypto Polymarket August 1, 2026
Senate shelves CLARITY Act as recess deadline looms
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Polymarket prices this 79% no. The reporting broadly agrees.
The Senate has set aside the CLARITY Act for now, diverting its limited floor bandwidth to other priorities and all but closing the window to pass the comprehensive crypto market structure bill before a month-long recess. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly urged the chamber to vote immediately, accusing Democrats of stalling the legislation for political reasons, while ethics concerns have emerged as a dividing issue among lawmakers. The bill, H.R.3633, cleared the House a year ago and passed the Senate Banking Committee in May, but has not reached a floor vote. Traders put the odds of no signing this year at 79%, a reading that tracks closely with the Senate's public posture, even though the reporting frames the delay as a scheduling decision rather than a definitive verdict on the bill's merits.
Background
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, introduced as H.R.3633 in the 119th Congress, would establish a federal framework for classifying and regulating digital assets, dividing oversight between the SEC and the CFTC. The House passed the bill roughly a year ago, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced it in May 2025. Passage has since stalled over partisan disagreement: Bessent blames Democratic obstruction, while opponents cite unresolved ethics questions tied to lawmakers' personal crypto holdings. The bill must clear both chambers and be signed by December 31, 2026, to become law this year.
The precedent
- The last major crypto market structure legislation to pass both chambers of Congress was the 21st Century Digital Assets Act, which cleared the House in 2022 but never received a Senate floor vote.
- No comprehensive federal crypto market structure bill has been signed into law in the United States as of mid-2026.
- The 2024 FIT21 Act passed the House with bipartisan support but likewise stalled in the Senate.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- The CLARITY Act passed the House about a year ago and cleared Senate Banking in May
- The Senate has not scheduled a floor vote
- The window to pass the bill before the August recess is closing or closed
- Ethics concerns are a dividing issue among lawmakers
Where sources diverge
- Whether the delay is primarily political obstruction by Democrats, as Bessent alleges, or a function of limited Senate floor bandwidth and unresolved ethics questions
How outlets frame it
- CoinDesk: Frames the delay as a matter of the Senate prioritizing other matters with limited bandwidth, a neutral scheduling explanation rather than partisan blame.
- decrypt: Emphasizes Bessent's aggressive push to force a vote and his accusation that Democrats are deliberately stalling the bill for political reasons.
What to watch
The Senate's recess timeline is the immediate gate: if no floor vote is scheduled before the break, the bill slips to September at the earliest, compressing an already tight calendar into the post-election lame-duck period. Watch for whether Bessent's public pressure campaign moves any Democratic votes, and whether Senate leadership signals willingness to bring H.R.3633 to the floor amid competing priorities.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this 79% no.
24h +3.0 pts 7d +1.0 pts
$6.5M traded · $503K in the last day · $403K resting liquidity · $2.5M open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
Pricing Polymarket 79%
Sources
- The CLARITY Act in Mid-2026: Where US Crypto Market Structure Actually Stands - tech-insider.org tech-insider.org
- The CLARITY Act: what it means for crypto investors 21shares.com
- The Clarity Act August 10 Final Deadline bitcoinfoundation.org
- The CLARITY Act Could Be in Trouble. This is the Only Crypto I'm Buying Right Now. finance.yahoo.com
- U.S. Senate puts off crypto Clarity Act for now as it focuses limited bandwidth elsewhere coindesk.com
Frequently asked questions
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Polymarket prices this 79% no. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
The CLARITY Act passed the House about a year ago and cleared Senate Banking in May The Senate has not scheduled a floor vote The window to pass the bill before the August recess is closing or closed Ethics concerns are a dividing issue among lawmakers
Where do the sources disagree?
Whether the delay is primarily political obstruction by Democrats, as Bessent alleges, or a function of limited Senate floor bandwidth and unresolved ethics questions
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.