Markets Polymarket August 10, 2026
Fed Rate Cuts in 2026: Traders See Zero
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Polymarket prices this 0 (0 bps) at 86%. The reporting broadly agrees.
As the Federal Reserve prepares for its next meeting, the market is pricing in a low probability of any rate cuts in 2026, with the crowd's favorite being zero cuts. Despite recent economic data showing a slowdown, the Fed has maintained its hawkish stance, and traders are reflecting this in the market's odds. The market's odds have slipped over the past week, with a modest move in the past 7 days, but have remained essentially flat in the past 24 hours. The market resolves on December 30, 2026, and remains open until then to account for any emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings.
Background
The Federal Reserve has been a key player in shaping the US economy, and its decisions on interest rates have a significant impact on the market. Since taking office in May, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has implemented several measures to reverse decades of Fed culture. The current economic data suggests a slowdown, but the Fed has maintained its hawkish stance, and traders are reflecting this in the market's odds.
The precedent
- The last time the Fed cut rates was in 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- The Fed has maintained its hawkish stance in recent years, despite economic data showing a slowdown.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- The Federal Reserve has been a key player in shaping the US economy.
- The current economic data suggests a slowdown.
- The Fed has maintained its hawkish stance.
Where sources diverge
- The likelihood of a rate cut in 2026
How outlets frame it
- CNBC: CNBC notes that the Fed has maintained its hawkish stance despite recent economic data showing a slowdown.
- cointelegraph: Cointelegraph highlights the impact of low US nonfarm payrolls data on the market.
What to watch
The upcoming FOMC meeting will be crucial in determining the Fed's next move on interest rates, and traders will be watching closely for any signs of a rate cut. The market's odds may shift in response to the meeting's outcome, and investors will be looking for any signs of a change in the Fed's stance.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this 0 (0 bps) at 86%.
24h +0.1 pts 7d -3.0 pts
$47.8M traded · $77.9K in the last day · $3.6M resting liquidity · $1.8M open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive)…
Pricing Polymarket 86%
Sources
- Federal Funds Rate History 1990 to 2026 forbes.com
- Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates? Here is what experts predict for July's meeting. cbsnews.com
- Warsh Floats Cut in Number of Fed Rate-Setting Meetings wsj.com
- What 2026 Fed Rate Decisions Mean for CDs nerdwallet.com
- Wall Street brokerages retain Fed hold in 2026 even as hawkish bets rise reuters.com
Frequently asked questions
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Polymarket prices this 0 (0 bps) at 86%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
The Federal Reserve has been a key player in shaping the US economy. The current economic data suggests a slowdown. The Fed has maintained its hawkish stance.
Where do the sources disagree?
The likelihood of a rate cut in 2026
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive)…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.